Augusto Cury shakes up Brazil’s frozen presidential race

The first surprise of Brazil’s presidential race came from an unexpected quarter. Augusto Cury, a best-selling psychiatrist and self-help author running for the Avante party, has surged ahead of two former governors and a strong-performing rival to lead the field of minor candidates.

Three polls, by BTG/Nexus, Real Big Data and Atlas/Bloomberg, recorded the rise. Cury gained nine points in two surveys and almost five in another. The numbers are striking, but it is still unclear whether they mark a trend or a temporary jolt. The surveys took place before the start of radio and television campaign advertising.

They did, however, cover a period that included the Band debate and interviews on TV Globo. Those appearances offer one possible explanation for the shift. The debate featured absences, middling performances and the production of short clips aimed at internet circulation. Cury gained the chance to introduce himself to a broader electorate and connect the name of the writer, already familiar to millions of readers, with that of a presidential candidate.

The other candidates did not make comparable gains. Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party remained where he was, while Romeu Zema of Novo fell another step. Renan Santos of Missão stood at 3% in the Nexus poll, tied technically with Cury in the Atlas survey and on 7% in Real Big Data, ahead of Caiado and Zema.

The commentary’s sharper point is that Cury’s appeal has grown without a detailed policy offering beyond a punning slogan about the “cure” he would bring to Brazil. That, it argues, reflects poorly on his opponents. The psychiatrist’s professional focus on observing and interpreting minds may have helped him connect with voters looking for someone to address their anxieties.

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