Band and Estadão Debate: Will empty podiums greet Lula, Flávio, and Zema?

The 2026 Brazilian presidential election campaign is off to a contentious start, with the first major debate hosted by Band and Estadão revealing significant candidate absences. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, the two frontrunners in opinion polls, have signaled they will not participate in the event. Romeu Zema, another prominent candidate, has also withdrawn his attendance.

The debate, scheduled for Sunday, September 23, is a collaboration between Grupo Bandeirantes, Estadão, TV Cultura, Gazeta, and Jovem Pan. While Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado have confirmed their presence, the absence of Lula and Bolsonaro leaves significant gaps. Fernando Schüler, a political scientist and columnist for Estadão, commented that candidates often prefer to speak alone, but voters might punish those who avoid the debate stage.

Lula has reportedly criticized the invitations extended to Zema and Renan Santos, while Bolsonaro has conditioned his participation on Lula's attendance, citing concerns about becoming the primary target for other rivals if the president is absent. Zema, in turn, stated that his acceptance of the date change was contingent on Lula's presence, and without him, the alteration lost its purpose.

The potential for empty podiums during the broadcast raises questions about the impact on voter perception. Schüler's observation suggests that avoiding direct engagement in debates could be a strategic misstep, potentially alienating voters who expect candidates to present their platforms and engage in public discourse.

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Many candidates prefer to speak alone. Voters may punish those who skip the debate.