Bitcoin holds near $78,000 as crypto market awaits ETF flows and Fed signals

Bitcoin is holding near $78,000 after failing to stay above the psychologically important $80,000 mark. The next move for the largest cryptocurrency will depend heavily on exchange-traded fund flows and signals from the US Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin had gained about 26%, rising from $62,700 to $81,235, but the rally did not last. The digital asset later corrected and returned below $80,000. Yudhono Rawis, chief executive and founder of FLOQ, said the pullback had not changed Bitcoin’s broader outlook, but the market had entered a test of whether investor demand remained strong enough to support prices.

US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded about $2.71 billion in net inflows in the week ending Aug. 24. Bitcoin accounted for about $1.92 billion of that total. The flow then weakened. Data from Farside Investors showed US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $201.9 million on Aug. 28, after several days of positive inflows.

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The Bitcoin rally throughout August showed that investor interest in crypto assets remains very strong. However, after failing to hold above $80,000, the market has now entered a testing phase.

Rawis said consistent ETF flows would be a key indicator while Bitcoin trades between $77,000 and $80,000. “If ETF flows turn positive again when Bitcoin is in the $77,000-$80,000 area, that could indicate that major investors still see the correction as an opportunity to build positions,” he said.

The market is also watching US monetary policy. The Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was interpreted as hawkish. Warsh said US inflation remained above the 2% target and had not improved sufficiently in recent months. August employment data, scheduled for Sept. 4, and consumer price data due Sept. 11 will be closely watched before the Sept. 15-16, 2026, FOMC meeting. Rawis expects Bitcoin volatility to remain high throughout September as trading becomes increasingly dependent on economic data.

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If ETF flows turn positive again when Bitcoin is in the $77,000-$80,000 area, that could indicate that major investors still see the correction as an opportunity to build positions.