Bloody Grain: How Latvia and Lithuania Are Responding to the Rapidly Growing Transit From Russia

Russia is rapidly shifting grain exports toward the Baltic as Ukrainian strikes reduce its capacity in the Black and Azov seas. In Latvia and Lithuania, the change has quickly turned into a political controversy over what is moving through their ports and who benefits from it.

Latvian farmers say ports are refusing to accept their harvest. The National Alliance is calling for a complete ban on the transit of Russian grain. Prime Minister Kulbergs, meanwhile, wants authorities to check whether some of the grain was stolen from occupied parts of Donbas.

Lithuania has already begun checking grain origins. In Klaipėda, authorities are investigating the possible unloading from railway wagons of wheat intended for Kaliningrad. The case has added a specific local dimension to a broader concern over Russian grain flows through the Baltic region.

The scale of the shift is substantial. Ukraine’s attacks have cost Russia more than 80% of its grain-export capacity in the south, while Russian wheat exports fell in August to their lowest level in 16 years. Demand for grain handling through Russia’s Baltic ports, including Vysotsk, Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, has multiplied in less than one season. About 1 million tonnes moved through those ports last season, but applications had already reached 5 million tonnes from the start of the new season to mid-August.

Analysts estimate that 5 million to 6 million tonnes of Russian grain could pass through ports in all three Baltic states this season if the current pace continues. The volume could rise further if Estonia also becomes involved. Latvia and Lithuania are therefore assessing both the provenance of the grain entering their terminals and the effect of the transit on their own economies.