Brazil Poll: Lula Leads Bolsonaro by 4 Points in First Round; Second Round Tied

President Lula (PT) leads with 41% of first-round voter intentions, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) trails closely with 37%, according to a new BTG/Nexus poll released Monday. The poll indicates a tightening race, with the gap between the two candidates shrinking to 4 percentage points from 9 points in the prior week's survey.

Other candidates registered lower intentions: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 5%, Renan Santos (Missão) at 4%, and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3%. Augusto Cury (Avante), Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), and Samara Martins (UP) each garnered 1%. Blank and null votes accounted for 4%, with 3% of voters remaining undecided or unresponsive.

The survey, conducted via telephone with 2,002 voters aged 16 and over nationwide between July 31 and August 2, has a margin of error of 2 percentage points with a 95% confidence interval. It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code BR-02874/2026.

In a simulated second-round scenario, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are technically tied, with 46% and 45% of voter intentions, respectively. Lula also shows strong performance against other potential opponents, leading Ronaldo Caiado 46% to 42% and Romeu Zema 46% to 40%. He holds a 47% to 37% advantage over Renan Santos in another simulated matchup.