Brazil's presidential election: First debate likely to miss Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil's upcoming 2026 presidential election is set to feature its inaugural debate, but the event will likely be overshadowed by the anticipated absence of frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. This absence is poised to be a strategic opportunity for the other invited candidates, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, to gain traction with an electorate where they currently hold low intentions of vote.

According to the latest Datafolha poll, Lula leads with 39% and Bolsonaro follows with 33% in the first round. In contrast, Caiado garners 5%, Renan 4%, Zema 3%, and Cury 2%. The margin of error is two percentage points. Lula's campaign informed the debate organizers that he would not attend, citing a potential disadvantage in confronting five opponents, two of whom, Zema and Renan, might not even be required to participate under electoral law. Following Lula's decision, Bolsonaro's campaign is also expected to withdraw, a strategy to prevent him from becoming the primary target for all other contenders in the absence of the PT candidate.

The debate format will include direct confrontations, question-and-answer sessions without moderators, and questions posed by Grupo Bandeirantes journalists. Initially, all participants will address thematic questions from the anchors, with two minutes for each response determined by a draw. Subsequent rounds involving journalist questions or candidate confrontations will allocate one minute per question, with candidates having four minutes for their response and rebuttal.

Caiado's campaign plans to leverage the absence of Lula and Bolsonaro, criticizing their decision as a sign of having "much to hide" and being "fleeing." A key strategy for Caiado is to differentiate himself from Bolsonaro, despite representing similar political leanings, by emphasizing his focus on security and health. His campaign also plans to highlight Renan Santos's inexperience and youth as limitations and to counter Zema's criticisms, particularly regarding the employment of Caiado's relatives in Goiás state positions.

Zema is expected to continue his criticism of Supreme Court ministers and the Workers' Party (PT), aiming to capture anti-PT votes. His campaign has released a jingle that includes these themes, alongside critiques of online gambling schemes and influencer Virgínia Fonseca, who previously endorsed him. Renan Santos is anticipated to use the debate platform to...