Brazil's trade surplus up 31.9% through July despite falling U.S. sales

Brazil's trade surplus surged by 31.9% to $49.039 billion in the first seven months of 2026, even as exports to the United States declined by 12.2%. The government reported that overall exports increased by 10.5% to $218.551 billion during the January-July period, while imports saw a more modest rise of 5.5% to $169.512 billion.

The significant surplus was primarily bolstered by a substantial 19.7% increase in exports to China. This growth in trade with its largest partner more than offset the decrease in sales to the U.S., which has fallen from its position as Brazil's second-largest trading partner, now surpassed by the European Union.

Sales to the United States have been on a downward trend since May 2025, following the imposition of additional tariffs by the U.S. government. While an earlier tariff was lifted by judicial decision, Washington recently announced a further 25% tariff on many Brazilian products, citing unfair trade practices, and an additional 12.5% tariff for allegedly failing to combat forced labor. These new measures are estimated to affect between $7.4 billion and $11 billion in Brazilian exports.

Despite efforts by the Brazilian government to negotiate the suspension of these sanctions or expand the list of exceptions, relations between Brazil and the U.S. have been strained. This diplomatic tension was further highlighted when Washington revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador to the U.S.

Following China, the European Union emerged as Brazil's second-largest export destination, with sales reaching $31.590 billion, an 11.0% increase. Exports to Argentina, however, decreased by 18.6% to $8.760 billion, though Argentina remained the fourth-largest trading partner. The government has revised its full-year surplus projection upwards to $90 billion, nearing the record set in 2023.