Brazilian gubernatorial races: Polls show varied scenarios across ten states

New Genial/Quaest polls reveal diverse electoral landscapes across ten Brazilian states, with gubernatorial races showing varied dynamics. In Bahia, the contest remains open, with former Salvador mayor ACM Neto numerically ahead of Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues in a first-round simulation. However, both are within the margin of error, and this close race persists in potential second-round scenarios.

Ceará's gubernatorial race sees former minister Ciro Gomes (PSDB) leading Governor Elmano de Freitas (PT) in both first and second-round simulations. Gomes holds a significant lead, particularly among independent voters, while Freitas garners support from "lulistas" and left-leaning voters.

In Goiás, Vice Governor Daniel Vilela (MDB) emerges as the favorite, leading comfortably in all simulations. This strong performance occurs amid high approval ratings for former Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), who is now running for president.

Minas Gerais shows Senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) in the lead, though his candidacy is not yet confirmed. Without his potential participation, the race appears balanced among other key contenders, with technically tied outcomes.

Pará's race features Governor Hana Ghassan (MDB) leading stimulated first-round polls, while Paraná sees Sérgio Moro ahead. In Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro, Raquel Lyra and Eduardo Paes hold advantages, respectively. São Paulo's race shows Tarcísio de Freitas maintaining a lead over Fernando Haddad.