Business in the shadow of avian flu

Poland is grappling with an unprecedented outbreak of avian flu, reporting 139 outbreaks in poultry by mid-May 2026, the highest figure in the European Union. This alarming number has necessitated the culling of around 9 million birds this year alone, posing a significant threat to the country's poultry business. Poultry farmers are expressing deep concern, recalling the severe economic damage caused by African Swine Fever (ASF) in Poland's pig farming sector.

The ASF epidemic, first detected in Poland in February 2014, found fertile ground due to fragmented farming practices, outdated facilities with inadequate biosecurity, and poor control over animal movement. These factors, coupled with underfunded veterinary inspections and protests against wild boar culling, exacerbated the spread. ASF's impact in Europe, notably in Portugal and Spain from the mid-1950s to the mid-1990s, serves as a stark warning, lasting approximately 35 years and significantly impacting pork markets.

The consequences of ASF in Poland have been catastrophic. The pig population has declined from about 13 million in 2014 to approximately 9 million currently. Over 600,000 pigs were culled due to necessity, leading to market losses for farmers and a surplus in the grain market due to reduced demand for feed. The number of pig farming households has fallen by over 50%, increasing Poland's reliance on pork imports. Currently, only about 41,000 farms maintain pigs in Poland.

The total cost of combating ASF in Poland over the past 11 years has reached 20 billion Polish zloty, with the state and farmers each bearing half of the expenses. ASF imposes severe restrictions on animal and pork movement both domestically and internationally. Poland had already lost its self-sufficiency in pork production by 2008, a problem that has been significantly worsened by the ASF crisis, further deepening the country's import dependency.