Caucasus nations diversify alliances, moving away from Moscow's influence

Armenia, under the leadership of Nikol Pashinyan, is embarking on an unprecedented diversification of its political and military alliances. Following significant setbacks in the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, Yerevan has expressed deep disappointment with the stance of the Russian Federation and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which failed to provide expected support. Consequently, the Pashinyan government has been actively developing ties with the European Union, the United States, India, and France, purchasing modern weaponry and drastically reducing its historical dependence on Moscow.

Wojciech Wojtasiewicz, an analyst at PISM, notes that this is not a sudden break from Russia but a complex balancing act aimed at securing the nation. He describes Armenia's foreign policy under Pashinyan as "multi-vector," focused on diversifying partnerships to avoid relying solely on one ally for security and development. Wojtasiewicz believes Pashinyan has learned from past mistakes, such as those made by Georgia's Mikheil Saakashvili, and is avoiding provocative rhetoric towards Moscow while expressing a desire for good relations.

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We are rather dealing in the case of Armenia under Pashinyan with a multi-vector foreign policy, which Pashinyan himself defines as a balanced foreign policy. What is this about? It is about diversifying partnerships, external contacts and not basing the security and development of Armenia on just one partner.

In contrast, Azerbaijan has emerged as a dominant force in the region after its military success in Karabakh. Baku has become a crucial partner for the European Union, which is seeking alternative energy sources following its disengagement from the Russian market in 2022. Although Azerbaijan's gas and oil supply only a fraction of Europe's demand, its strategic importance is growing, particularly with the development of the Middle Corridor. This transport route bypasses Russia and Belarus, connecting China and Central Asia through the Caucasus and Turkey directly to Europe.

Azerbaijan is also increasingly assertive in its dealings with Moscow, responding to political and humanitarian incentives, such as those for Ukraine. The country has not hesitated to restrict the activities of Russian entities or media within its territory, signaling President Ilham Aliyev's ambition to be a fully independent and equal international player. Meanwhile, Georgia, once a leader in pro-Western reforms, is experiencing a concerning democratic regression under the ruling Georgian Dream party.

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I think Pashinyan has learned his lessons and does not want to make the mistakes that Mikheil Saakashvili made in Georgia. That is, he does not use such provocative rhetoric towards Putin. He tries to mitigate all these tensions, assuring of his desire for good relations with the Russian Federation.