CBOS Poll: Only Four Parties Would Enter Polish Sejm; Morawiecki's Party and Nowa Lewica Below Threshold

A recent poll by CBOS indicates a significant shift in Poland's political landscape, suggesting that only four political parties would secure seats in the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, if an election were held today. The survey reveals that both the party led by current Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the Nowa Lewica (New Left) coalition are currently polling below the required electoral threshold.

The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, led by Jarosław Kaczyński, has experienced its lowest approval ratings since the 2023 general elections. This decline follows a recent internal split within the party. Despite the dip in support, the report suggests that a potential electoral alliance between PiS and smaller right-wing parties, such as those led by Sławomir Mentzen and Robert Biedroń, could still enable them to form a parliamentary majority.

These findings highlight the volatility of Polish public opinion and the potential for significant changes in the parliamentary composition. The data underscores the challenges faced by established parties and the fluid nature of political alliances in the lead-up to future elections. The electoral threshold system means that parties failing to reach a certain percentage of votes do not gain parliamentary representation, potentially reshaping the political spectrum.