Central banks see gold at $6,000 - is this the last chance to buy at a 'discount'?

Global central banks are aggressively increasing their gold reserves, signaling a strong belief in the metal's future value, with some institutions forecasting prices to potentially reach $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce. This trend suggests that now may be a opportune time to invest in gold at a comparatively lower price.

According to a report by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), central banks are not only continuing their gold purchases but are doing so with increasing intensity. The study, which surveyed 74 central banks, revealed that 82% now hold physical gold in their reserves, up from 71% just a year ago. This represents one of the fastest structural shifts in recent monetary history, with the acceleration continuing. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, central banks purchased a net 244 tons of gold, marking the quickest quarterly pace in 18 months. China's central bank, for example, has consistently increased its reserves for 20 consecutive months, demonstrating a strategic approach to buying gold regardless of short-term price fluctuations.

The European Central Bank's recent report highlighted that gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds in value as the largest reserve asset for global central banks for the first time since 1996. Central banks currently hold approximately $4.5 trillion in gold, compared to $3.5 trillion in U.S. bonds. This shift is largely driven by escalating geopolitical uncertainty. OMFIF reports that 51% of reserve managers cite protection against geopolitical risk as a reason for holding gold, an 11 percentage point increase from 2024. The conflict in the Middle East is identified as the primary threat by 85% of respondents, while 81% express concern over the unpredictability of the U.S. administration's actions.

Furthermore, nearly 80% of participants believe the global monetary system is moving away from a single currency's dominance towards a multipolar order. In such an environment, physical gold is seen as a more reliable asset than paper-based investments, as it does not depend on any single entity's promise to repay debt. This perception is leading even traditionally conservative institutions to aggressively acquire gold, an asset that has historically served as a final line of defense.