China’s drone production capacity can only meet 60% of war demand: study

Even with full mobilization, China's industrial system could only meet 60 percent of its military demand for drones in the event of a conflict, according to a rare study examining the potential effects of sudden warfare. The estimates were derived from an artificial intelligence model that analyzed a complex supply chain, linking drone assembly plants with subsystem and component suppliers.

The study, published online in the Journal of System Simulation on July 24, also considered factors such as existing inventories, production capacity, order backlogs, budgets, and the conversion of civilian factories for military use. It was led by Professor Zhang Jihai, director of the National Defence Mobilisation Research Centre at the Beijing Institute of Technology, a university known for its strong military research background and subject to US sanctions.

The researchers emphasized that competition in modern warfare is increasingly determined by industrial capacity rather than solely by weapon system performance. They noted that capacity expansion cannot quickly bridge the gap, as building new production lines requires significant time. This finding is supported by recent conflicts, where precision weapons have been rapidly consumed, as reported by Reuters on August 4, which noted the US Army had used virtually all of its army tactical missile systems and precision strike missiles during a five-month war with Iran.

The study's findings suggest that China faces limitations in rapidly scaling up its drone production to meet the demands of a high-intensity conflict. The reliance on a multi-level supply chain and the time required for industrial expansion present significant challenges in achieving wartime production targets. This analysis provides a rare glimpse into the potential vulnerabilities of China's defense industrial base concerning drone manufacturing.

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Modern warfare competition is no longer merely about the performance of weapon systems, but more fundamentally about industrial capacity – especially the comprehensive capability of production mobilisation for military equipment.