China's island building in South China Sea aims to delay Taiwan intervention: scholars

China is actively engaged in land reclamation at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, significantly expanding its area to 1,490 acres. Scholars commissioned by Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council and the Institute for National Defense and Security Research analyze this development as a strategic move within China's "active defense" doctrine.

The primary objective, according to the analysis, is not direct support for an assault on Taiwan but rather to impede and delay the arrival of external naval and air forces. This strategic positioning aims to create a crucial 48 to 72-hour window for the People's Liberation Army to complete an amphibious landing or establish a blockade around Taiwan.

By integrating island features into a comprehensive defense network, China seeks to maintain regional initiative in the early stages of a conflict. This strategy fragments potential U.S. intervention routes, transforming the South China Sea into a "fortress zone" for Chinese submarines, thereby neutralizing the technological advantage of U.S. and allied submarines and sensing capabilities.

“

In a high-intensity conflict scenario in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea island features are not intended to directly support frontal operations against Taiwan, but rather to contain and delay the entry of external naval and air forces, expanding the critical 48 to 72-hour window for the PLA to complete an amphibious landing and blockade in the Taiwan Strait.

Scholars predict Antelope Reef will likely become a "dual-use" node. In peacetime, it could be presented as a scientific research facility, administrative outpost, or support base for maritime militia and coast guard. During conflict, it could rapidly be converted into a forward base for electronic warfare, aerial and maritime surveillance, and limited strikes, posing a threat to civilian and military vessels transiting the vital north-south shipping lanes of the South China Sea.

Furthermore, the report suggests that China plans to deploy shore-based anti-ship missiles, such as the YJ-12B and YJ-18, with ranges of approximately 400 to 500 kilometers. This deployment would extend China's anti-ship strike radius, posing a continuous threat to surface fleets traveling north from the Indian Ocean or central South China Sea. This forces U.S. destroyers and carrier strike groups approaching Taiwan from the South China Sea to either confront these threats or take longer routes via the Bashi or Miyako Straits, increasing transit time and creating a "strategic isolation" effect for Taiwan.

“

The strategic design is that Beijing is attempting to shape the South China Sea into a 'layered fortress' operational space. Any external naval and air forces attempting to transit the South China Sea to support the Taiwan Strait or maintain freedom of navigation are forced to weigh routes and risks within multiple 'soldier' nodes, making it difficult to view the South China Sea as a simple open sea free passage.