China’s space race has a new problem: finding room for failure

Speculation is swirling around the cause of China's Long March-7A rocket failure, which disintegrated over the South China Sea on August 10. Within hours of the incident, trade reports began pointing to an engine issue as the likely culprit, despite no official confirmation from the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC).

An official Xinhua report described only a "flight anomaly" and an ongoing investigation. However, two unofficial explanations have emerged. One theory centers on the YF-100 engine, which powers the rocket's first stage and boosters, and is also used in several other Long March variants. The second explanation suggests a possible structural failure near Max-Q, the point of highest aerodynamic stress during ascent, a view supported by independent space flight trackers who analyzed launch footage.

Both unofficial explanations agree that the failure occurred approximately 85 seconds after launch, during the burn of the first stage and boosters. This timing predates the activation of the third stage, which uses a different engine (YF-75) that was implicated in a previous Long March-3B failure in January. There is currently no evidence to suggest a shared cause between these two distinct rocket failures.

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a flight anomaly