Climate change multiplies extreme wildfire risk in Canada, study finds

Canada is facing a fivefold increase in the risk of extreme fire weather conditions due to human-caused climate change, a new international study reveals. The research, conducted by World Weather Attribution (WWA), found that periods with extreme fire weather, similar to those experienced this summer, are now nearly twice as likely in Ontario compared to a world 1.4 degrees Celsius cooler.

The study also determined that 30-day periods characterized by heat, dryness, and other factors conducive to rapid fire spread are now approximately twice as probable in both Ontario and the Northwest Territories. While Canada began its 2026 season with below-average activity, a combination of heat, low humidity, and thunderstorms led to a rapid escalation in July.

This surge in fires significantly impacted air quality and led to the cancellation of public World Cup celebrations in Toronto. It also affected pre-final training sessions in New Jersey, though no matches were suspended. As of August 3, over 4,000 fires had burned 3.8 million hectares, exceeding the annual average. WWA researchers noted that while a direct link to accumulated drought over the past two years couldn't be definitively established, rising temperatures clearly create conditions for faster flame expansion.

The findings follow several exceptionally destructive fire seasons. In 2023, Canada endured its worst year on record, with 14.6 to 18.5 million hectares burned. The current year has already seen another 5.3 million hectares incinerated, nearly double the average of the previous 25 years. WWA warns that extreme seasons "are here to stay" and urges enhanced alert systems, inter-jurisdictional coordination, and improved capacity for deploying firefighters and aircraft.