Climate change shifts malaria risk to southern, East Africa: Study

Climate change is altering the landscape of malaria risk across Africa, with a new study published in Nature indicating a significant geographical shift. While current malaria hotspots, particularly in West Africa, may experience a decrease in transmission as temperatures become too high for mosquitoes, cooler regions in southern and East Africa face an increasing threat.

The study, titled 'The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa,' quantifies these changes, finding that climate change has already slightly increased childhood malaria overall. Looking ahead, rising temperatures are projected to make conditions more favorable for mosquitoes in southern Africa and high-elevation East Africa. This could lead to a 5% increase in cases in areas like the Ethiopian highlands and similar rises in Angola, Zambia, and northeastern South Africa.

By the year 2100, the risk in regions such as the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa could escalate by as much as 20%, presenting new challenges for communities less experienced in combating the disease. In contrast, countries like Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali might see a 5% reduction in cases, with potential elimination in extremely hot Sahelian nations.

"Climate change isn't just making malaria worse or better, it’s moving it," stated co-author Tamma Carleton, faculty head of Research for the Climate Impact Lab at UC Berkeley. "Whether a place sees elevated malaria risks or reduced burdens under climate change depends on how hot it is today. We see relief in the current hotspots and new risk nearly everywhere else."

The findings underscore the dual necessity of both climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. While reducing emissions could avert significant increases in malaria cases, particularly in vulnerable southern and East African regions, proactive adaptation measures are equally critical to manage the evolving risks and protect populations.

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Climate change isn’t just making malaria worse or better, it’s moving it. Whether a place sees elevated malaria risks or reduced burdens under climate change depends on how hot it is today. We see relief in the current hotspots and new risk nearly everywhere else.