Climate Crisis Fuels Geopolitical 'Survival Wars'

The world is facing a complex web of crises, with the recent US-Iran conflict serving as a stark reminder of how geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by environmental shifts, can disrupt global energy and raw material supply chains. This interconnectedness, where geographical distance offers little protection from the impact of conflict, is a central theme explored in Arthur Snell's "New War." The book posits that the fundamental driver behind escalating international conflicts is the climate crisis, a concept highlighted in the World Economic Forum's "Global Risks Report 2026."

Snell, a veteran diplomat with extensive experience in regions like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yemen, uses the lens of "earth, air, fire, and water" to analyze geopolitical crises from the Sahel to the Arctic. A significant focus of "New War" is China's strategic maneuvering in the era of climate change. The book details how China leverages its dominance in critical mineral processing, such as lithium and rare earth elements, to solidify its position in the burgeoning clean energy sector. Examples include alleged sabotage by Chinese partners against European companies like Northvolt and coordinated online campaigns to obstruct Western resource acquisition projects.

While many anticipate a potential conflict between China and Taiwan as the next major global flashpoint, Snell suggests this scenario might be less likely due to China's high dependence on food and energy imports, making it vulnerable to blockades of key shipping lanes. Instead, the book points to the Arctic as the next arena for geopolitical competition. As climate change opens up new transpolar shipping routes and increases access to resources, nations like the U.S. (establishing a consulate in Greenland) and China (seeking land acquisitions) are vying for influence, while Russia maintains a long-term presence in Svalbard. This intensifying race threatens the fragile peace previously maintained in the region.

"New War" is presented as a guide to understanding the evolving global order, where climate change acts as a catalyst for geopolitical realignment. The book's insights are particularly relevant for nations like South Korea, which navigate a complex geopolitical landscape between major powers. By dissecting the intricate relationship between climate, resources, and international conflict, Snell offers a framework for comprehending the profound shifts underway and preparing for the challenges ahead.