CNN: Why Iran is unwilling to back down before Washington

The United States and Iran are still directing their attacks mainly at military targets, avoiding strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure for now. Despite threats from senior Iranian officials, Tehran has not repeated attacks on Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, according to Dan Sitrovitz, a former head of the Iran section of Israeli military intelligence.

Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said neither side wanted to return to a full-scale war. At the same time, he said both the prospect of Iran disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the economic pressure imposed by the United States were becoming less sustainable options.

The costs are increasingly visible inside the United States. By July, war-related needs had cost about $40 billion, while U.S. forces were using expensive military assets and drawing down weapons stocks. Sources told CNN last month that the U.S. military had used almost 80% of its interceptor systems, including nearly four-fifths of its THAAD missiles and about half of its Patriot interceptors.

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Neither side wants to return to a full-scale war.

Iran faces a heavier impact, with Tehran struggling to sell oil and Iranian civilians having limited access to basic goods. Weapons, food and medicine stocks may also be close to depletion. Those pressures do not rule out an escalation. Iran expert Arash Azizi said, “The regime knows that a full surrender could bring about its fall.”

Tehran has repeatedly said it is ready to return to negotiations if Washington renews its commitments under the memorandum of understanding signed in June. The U.S. president has said he is not interested in negotiating with Iran, leaving the two sides under pressure while military action continues.

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The regime knows that a full surrender could bring about its fall.