COMMENTARY - Air strikes will not topple the Iranian regime. Now is the time for diplomacy

The ongoing conflict involving Iran presents a complex challenge, and as this commentary from Neue Zürcher Zeitung posits, the current strategy of air strikes is unlikely to achieve the desired outcome of regime change. Despite initial pronouncements of swift victory, the crisis persists, underscoring the resilience of the Iranian leadership. The article rightly points out that even the targeted elimination of high-ranking officials, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and strategist Ali Larijani, has not destabilized the regime. This is largely due to Iran's meticulously planned succession system, where multiple successors are designated for each key position, ensuring continuity of power.

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Air strikes will not topple the Iranian regime. Now is the time for diplomacy.

From our perspective at NZZ, the focus on military action overlooks the strategic depth of the Iranian state. While Iran's military capabilities have been degraded, particularly its air defense systems and naval forces, its ability to retaliate with drones and rockets has inflicted significant costs, especially on the Gulf states. The images of smoke plumes over Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha are not just symbolic; they represent a tangible threat to the economic model of these nations. This highlights the interconnectedness of regional security and economic stability, a point often underestimated in Western analyses.

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Military successes in the war against Iran have been limited.

Therefore, the argument for diplomacy, as presented in the commentary, becomes increasingly compelling. While military pressure may have played a role in weakening Iran's offensive capabilities, it has not proven sufficient to dismantle the regime. The growing fear of a protracted conflict and its wider implications, including the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, necessitates a shift in strategy. Engaging in negotiations with Tehran, as suggested, offers a potential pathway to de-escalate the situation and prevent further regional destabilization. This approach acknowledges the limitations of military solutions and prioritizes a political resolution, which is crucial for long-term peace and security in the region.

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Israel and the USA should negotiate with Tehran to end the conflict.