Communal unrest exposes failures in Nepal’s intelligence system

Prime Minister Balendra Shah summoned security chiefs for an emergency briefing following communal tensions that flared up in Dewanganj, Sunsari, and spread across neighboring districts in Madhesh province. Notably absent from these high-level consultations was Tekendra Karki, the head of the National Investigation Department (NID), Nepal’s sole civilian intelligence agency operating directly under the prime minister's office.

During separate meetings with the Inspector General of Nepal Police and the Armed Police Force chief, Prime Minister Shah sought answers regarding the breakdown of order. He specifically questioned the circumstances of live rounds being fired and how warning shots resulted in a civilian fatality. A second victim later succumbed to injuries. According to the security chiefs' briefings, the initial confrontation erupted between two local groups on July 26, and responding police units were ambushed by violent mobs, forcing a retreat.

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How did the situation in Sunsari go out of control? Under what exact circumstances were live rounds fired, and how did warning shots result in a civilian fatality?

Inspector Rakesh Rai reported firing three warning rounds, and a subsequent Armed Police Force unit fired at least 20 warning shots. However, a former chief investigation director of the NID criticized the prime minister's decision to exclude the intelligence chief. He stated that the NID could have provided objective, unvarnished information distinct from the operational accounts of frontline forces, especially since it remains unverified who fired the lethal bullet.

The NID is statutorily mandated to gather preemptive intelligence on threats to national security and alert the executive before crises erupt. Its responsibilities include collecting intelligence on economic crimes, terrorism, organized crime, and threats to religious, cultural, and communal harmony. However, the agency's effectiveness has been repeatedly questioned.

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In Siraha, it remains completely unverified who actually fired the lethal bullet, as neither security agency has admitted that their personnel fired the fatal round. Had the prime minister consulted the NID chief, he could have received objective, unvarnished information distinct from the operational accounts offered by the frontline police forces.