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Cuba's demographic crisis deepens with record low births and declining population
🇵🇾 Paraguay /Culture & Society

Cuba's demographic crisis deepens with record low births and declining population

From ABC Color · () Spanish

Translated from Spanish, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Official statement Context piece
  • Cuba recorded its lowest number of births in decades in 2025, with only 68,051 newborns.
  • The island's population has declined to 9.4 million, marked by low fertility, an aging population, and negative migration.
  • Experts warn of a complex demographic crisis, with a shrinking youth population and a significant portion of emigrants being under 35.

Cuba is grappling with a severe demographic crisis, having registered a record low of 68,051 births in 2025, the fewest in decades. State media reports indicate the island's population now stands at 9.4 million, a figure reflecting a clear downward trend driven by low fertility rates, an aging populace, and a significant negative migration balance.

The downward trend is clear.

— Granma newspaperDescribing the consistent decrease in birth rates over recent years.

Data from the Center for Demographic Studies (Cedem) reveals a consistent decline in births, falling from 99,000 in 2021 to just over 71,000 in 2024, culminating in the historic low last year. This starkly contrasts with 134,354 deaths recorded, highlighting a natural population decrease. Cedem researchers note that the population under 35 now constitutes only 38.4% of the total, with the youngest age group (0-4 years) being the least represented, a direct consequence of declining fertility.

This is the lowest figure in decades, contrasted with 134,354 deaths, which evidences a natural decrease.

— Cedem researchersHighlighting the significant gap between births and deaths leading to population decline.

Compounding the issue, nearly half of those leaving the island in 2024 were under 35 years old. The government estimates that over three million Cubans live abroad, with a substantial number maintaining residency or effective ties to the island. This outflow of young people exacerbates the challenges of an aging society and a shrinking workforce.

Cuba faces a complex reality marked by low fertility, population aging, and a negative migration balance that redefines social and economic structures.

— CedemSummarizing the multifaceted demographic challenges confronting the nation.

Adding another layer to the crisis, adolescent fertility remains a sensitive issue. While the rate has decreased, its relative weight in the country's overall fertility has increased. Independent demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos estimates the total population may be closer to 8.6 million, significantly lower than official figures. These demographic shifts present complex social and economic challenges for Cuba's future.

One of the most sensitive challenges in Cuba is adolescent fertility, a situation that is a social problem that goes beyond health.

— Matilde MolinaAddressing the issue of teenage pregnancy as a significant social concern.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by ABC Color in Spanish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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