Cuba's major blackout to affect up to 63% of island Monday

Cubans are bracing for widespread power outages on Monday, with the state-run Electric Union (UNE) forecasting that up to 63% of the island could be without electricity simultaneously. The nation's 9.4 million inhabitants are expected to have only two to three hours of power on average.

The projected deficit for Monday's peak demand hours is stark: generation capacity is estimated at 1,240 megawatts (MW), while demand is expected to reach 3,300 MW, leaving a shortfall of 2,060 MW. This significant gap means that 2,090 MW will need to be disconnected to prevent uncontrolled blackouts.

This critical energy situation is the result of a two-year crisis, exacerbated since January by U.S. oil sanctions. The government has acknowledged the dire state of the National Electroenergetic System (SEN). Power outages due to generation capacity shortfalls have already exceeded 30 continuous hours in Havana, fueling public discontent and leading to peaceful protests, including caceroladas (pot-banging demonstrations).

The crisis is attributed to both internal and external factors. Cuba's energy infrastructure is deeply obsolete, suffering from decades of underinvestment and inadequate maintenance. Many thermoelectric plants, which provide 40% of the energy mix, were built in the 1960s and 1970s and are prone to frequent breakdowns. Currently, eight of the country's 16 thermal generation units are offline. The remaining 40% of the energy mix relies on generators using imported diesel and fuel oil, which have been impacted by U.S. pressure. Independent experts estimate that a complete overhaul of the SEN would require between $8 billion and $10 billion, a sum far beyond Cuba's current economic capabilities.