Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro allies expect improvement after Jaques Wagner effect; Lula campaign downplays

Allies of Flávio Bolsonaro are anticipating an improvement in his electoral prospects following a recent police operation targeting Senator Jaques Wagner, a key government figure. They believe this development, coupled with the start of the official campaign, will help close the gap with President Lula. Conversely, individuals close to Lula are minimizing the potential impact of the investigation into Wagner on the president's standing.

A recent Datafolha poll indicates that Lula maintains an advantage, securing 41% in the first round compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In a simulated second-round scenario, Lula leads 47% to 43%. This poll, conducted shortly after the operation against Wagner, is seen by Lula's camp as reflecting a stable scenario, especially compared to a previous poll taken after revelations about Flávio Bolsonaro's financial dealings.

Despite the poll numbers, Bolsonaro's supporters, including PL party leaders in Congress, view the current results as a positive starting point, especially given that Flávio Bolsonaro has not yet formally begun his campaign. They argue that the current poll does not fully capture the impact of the Wagner case and expect his numbers to rise. Some strategists within the Bolsonaro campaign are considering a more aggressive approach, shifting from a cautious reaction to the Wagner case to actively criticizing Lula's party due to Wagner's alleged ties to Banco Master.

On the other side, Lula's campaign leaders, like Pedro Uczai, interpret the poll as a consolidation of Lula's approval and a sign of upward momentum. They believe the results reflect the positive impact of government actions. The differing interpretations highlight the strategic maneuvering and competing narratives as the election approaches, with both sides seeking to leverage current events to their advantage.

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A princípio, a campanha defendeu uma reação cautelosa à operação contra Wagner, pois não seria prudente apostar a eleição deste ano no caso Master diante da volatilidade do escândalo.