Datafolha Poll: Bolsonaro Leads Lula in São Paulo; Minas Gerais Tied in Second Round

A Datafolha poll indicates a tight race in a potential second-round presidential election in São Paulo, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 47% to 42%. The survey, which polled 1,610 São Paulo voters between August 18-19, 2026, has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

In Minas Gerais, the scenario is even closer. Lula garners 46% of voter intentions compared to Bolsonaro's 42%. Given the 3-point margin of error for this state, the result is considered a technical tie. Datafolha surveyed 1,204 voters in Minas Gerais from August 18-20, 2026.

The polling firm also conducted surveys in Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, and the Federal District. In Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro leads Lula 49% to 40%. However, in Pernambuco, Lula holds a significant advantage, leading 62% to 29% in a second-round contest.

In the Federal District, Bolsonaro is ahead with 51% of voter intentions, while Lula has 39%. The margin of error for these three locations is 3 percentage points. These findings come as the gubernatorial races in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, which influence the presidential election dynamics in those states, are also being closely watched.