Datafolha poll puts Lula at 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in first round

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro by five percentage points in the latest Datafolha first-round scenario, with 38% of voting intentions against 33% for the senator from the Liberal Party. The gap is half the size recorded in May.

Augusto Cury, of Avante, rose six points to 8% and now stands alone in third place. Ronaldo Caiado has 4%, Renan Santos 3%, and Romeu Zema 2%. Samara, Edmilson Costa, and Rui Costa Pimenta each have 1%. Six percent would cast a blank or spoiled ballot, while 3% remain undecided.

In the previous poll two weeks earlier, Lula had 39%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33%, Caiado 5%, Renan 4%, Zema 3%, and Cury 2%. In a runoff, Lula leads Flávio 46% to 44%, a technical tie within the margin of error of two percentage points. Lula also leads Caiado 46% to 41%, Zema 48% to 39%, and Renan 47% to 38%.

The poll was conducted among 2,002 voters in 125 cities on Tuesday and Wednesday. Commissioned by TV Globo and Folha, it is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under code BR-03669/2026. The figures exclude Pablo Marçal, who is ineligible but registered a presidential candidacy that is expected to be blocked when the court reviews it. Including him leaves the race largely unchanged, with Marçal at 2%.

The survey is the first Datafolha poll since free electoral advertising began. It also followed the campaign’s first televised debate and presidential interviews on TV Globo. Fieldwork was already under way when messages involving former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes became public, so the poll cannot capture the scandal’s full impact.