Deaths double births in Cuba in 2025, deepening demographic crisis

Cuba's demographic crisis deepened in 2025, as deaths significantly outnumbered births, according to state media reports. The island recorded 136,214 deaths, more than double the 68,064 births registered during the year. This trend highlights an accelerating aging of the population, with individuals aged 60 and over now constituting 26.7% of the total national population.

The low fertility rate, standing at 1.29 children per woman for the second consecutive year, marks the lowest figures since 1958. This rate is well below the 2.1 children per woman needed for generational replacement. The total effective population of Cuba at the end of 2025 was 9,434,593 people, with a significant majority, 74.7%, residing in urban areas.

Geographically, Havana exhibits the highest population decrease rate at -43.9 per thousand inhabitants and accounts for nearly a third of the total external migratory balance, with 78,537 people leaving the island in 2025. Conversely, the eastern province of Guantánamo reports the lowest decrease rate (-22.9 per thousand) and leads in births with 9.1 per thousand inhabitants.

Specialists from the Center for Population and Development Studies (CEPDE) and the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) are calling for the design of policies and services that accommodate the current demographic structure. They emphasize the need for territorial decentralization as all Cuban provinces are losing population and regional disparities are widening.