Donald Trump Loses Control in Iran Crisis

U.S. President Donald Trump's strategy to quickly resolve the Iran crisis appears to be faltering, with both Iran and Israel acting independently of his commands. Approximately 100 days into the conflict, Iran launched rocket salvos at Israel, which were met with retaliatory airstrikes by the Israeli air force on targets in Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan. This escalation occurred despite Trump's public pronouncements of impending deals with Tehran and his calls for restraint from both sides.

Trump's reactions have been described as blunt and helpless as he urged Iran back to the negotiating table and pressed Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid further retaliation. However, the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran and the leadership in Jerusalem are following their own strategic logic. Iran's actions, such as attacking Israeli air force bases in response to perceived threats against Hezbollah, are met with Israel's determination to maintain its principle of deterrence, a deeply ingrained aspect of its national identity.

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I am in command.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces significant domestic political pressure, particularly from his far-right coalition partners and the opposition, to continue the conflict against Hezbollah. His recent assurance to Trump, following a tense phone call, not to attack the Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut lasted only a few days, highlighting the complex dynamics at play. The Iranian regime, meanwhile, continues its strategic maneuvering, testing the limits of U.S. diplomacy and challenging the efforts of special envoys.

The volatile situation has immediate repercussions on global markets. Following the latest exchange of fire, oil prices saw an increase, while stock markets experienced a decline. This demonstrates how regional tensions directly influence international economic stability, complicating Trump's broader foreign policy objectives and potentially overshadowing domestic political celebrations.

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If you attack my Hezbollah in Beirut, I will attack Israeli air force bases.