Economists pick France over Spain for World Cup glory, Brazil to flop

Economists are forecasting France to lift the World Cup trophy on July 19, narrowly edging out Spain in a poll that also predicts Brazil will be the tournament's biggest disappointment. The survey, conducted every four years, provided a welcome diversion from macroeconomic forecasting for 160 respondents from across the globe.

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After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time.

France received 35% of the vote to win the 48-team tournament, which is the first to be staged across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Spain followed closely with 31%. If successful, France's Didier Deschamps would join Italy's Vittorio Pozzo as the only coach to win two World Cups, and he would be the only one to do so after also winning as a player in 1998.

Reigning champions Argentina, Portugal, and England rounded out the top five choices. Cathal Kennedy, a senior economist at RBC in London, noted that France's squad retains key players from the 2022 final, now reaching their career peaks, and is complemented by emerging talent. He also anticipates a well-rested Kylian Mbappe will be available for the tournament.

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The squad retains a number of members of the team that reached the final who are now reaching the peak of their careers, complemented by the emergence of some members of the Paris St Germain side.

Mbappe, who recently concluded a prolific season with Real Madrid, was also the poll's top pick for both the Golden Ball (best player) and the Golden Boot (top scorer). He narrowly beat England captain Harry Kane, who had a career-best 61-goal season with Bayern Munich. Both players are among those chasing German legend Miroslav Klose's all-time record of 16 World Cup goals.

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Added to that, they should have a well-rested Kylian Mbappe to call on for the tournament.

While most respondents relied on gut feeling (73%) or data and models (20%), a few expressed loyalty, with Japan, Mexico, and Morocco each receiving one vote. Brazil, despite Carlo Ancelotti's arrival as coach, was predicted by nearly a third of respondents to be the biggest flop, following their quarter-final exit in 2022.

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As with any model, the forecast was adjusted with a heavy dose of gut feel!