Economists Predict France to Win World Cup, Brazil to Flop

Economists, typically focused on inflation and economic shocks, have turned their attention to predicting the outcome of the upcoming World Cup, with France emerging as the favored team. A Reuters survey of 160 respondents from nearly every continent forecasts that France will defeat Spain in the final to lift the trophy on July 19. Conversely, five-time winners Brazil are expected to be the tournament's biggest disappointment.

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After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time.

This quadrennial poll provides a welcome diversion from the complex macroeconomic forecasting that has dominated the economists' work amid global conflicts and energy crises. The survey covers the expanded 48-team tournament, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, a first for a World Cup staged in three countries. Les Bleus received 35% of the vote to secure their third World Cup title, narrowly edging out Spain, which garnered 31%.

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The squad retains a number of members of the team that reached the final who are now reaching the peak of their careers, complemented by the emergence of some members of the Paris St Germain side.

France's coach, Didier Deschamps, has the opportunity to become the first coach since Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win two World Cups. He also has the distinction of having won the trophy as a player in 1998. Argentina, the current FIFA world rankings leader and reigning champion, along with Portugal and England, rounded out the top five choices in the poll.

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Added to that, they should have a well-rested Kylian Mbappe to call on for the tournament.

Cathal Kennedy, a senior economist at RBC in London, noted that France appears "well equipped to go one better" after their 2022 final appearance. He highlighted the team's blend of experienced players reaching their peak and emerging talents, particularly mentioning the expected availability of a well-rested Kylian Mbappe. Mbappe, who recently concluded a successful season with Real Madrid, was also the economists' pick for both the Golden Ball (best player) and the Golden Boot (top scorer), narrowly ahead of England captain Harry Kane.

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As with any model, the forecast was adjusted with a heavy dose of gut feel!