El Niño brings three cyclones together in the Pacific

The Pacific is hosting an unusual three-storm sequence: hurricanes Lowell and Karina, both Category 4 systems, followed by Tropical Storm Marie near Mexico’s coast. Marie was expected to strengthen into a hurricane, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Lowell and Karina were forecast to continue moving well away from Hawaii, but their paths remained uncertain. The possibility of stronger winds and heavier rainfall in the U.S. archipelago persisted as Hawaii continued recovering from flooding caused by Cyclone Lala in mid-August.

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Certainly rare.

Climatologist Julia Cole of Michigan State University told Agence France-Presse that El Niño creates conditions favorable to such storms, which are mainly powered by warm water. She said the appearance of three storms in sequence was “certainly rare.” Four cyclones followed one another in 2015, another year marked by a strong El Niño.

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El Niño creates conditions favorable to these storms, which are mainly fueled by warm waters.

Benjamin Kirtman of the University of Miami said the climate system had genuinely warmed over roughly the past 20 years, while surface water temperatures were already near record levels. NOAA estimated a 69% chance that this El Niño would become the strongest on record and said it was already producing extreme weather worldwide, with its peak expected in November.

El Niño occurs every two to seven years when normally persistent easterly winds weaken, allowing warm western Pacific waters to move eastward. Months of above-normal surface temperatures can generate storms beyond the region and alter weather patterns globally, producing warmer and drier conditions in some areas and colder, wetter conditions in others. Scientists agree that climate change is intensifying these effects.

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The climate system has genuinely warmed over roughly the past twenty years.