El Nino Could Push Temperatures Higher, UN Warns

The United Nations weather agency has issued a stark warning, predicting an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event developing between June and August this year. If it forms, there is a near 90% chance it will persist until at least November, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

El Nino is characterized by a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon, which usually lasts nine to 12 months, has far-reaching consequences, including global temperature increases, shifts in rainfall patterns, causing droughts in some regions and increased precipitation in others, and a heightened risk of hurricane formation in the Pacific.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasized the need for preparedness, stating that most forecast models suggest the event will be at least moderate, possibly strong. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," Saulo said. Associated risks include a higher prevalence of insect-borne diseases and threats to food and water security, potentially leading to poor harvests for climate-vulnerable crops like cocoa.

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We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will ‌exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres linked the impending El Nino to existing global warming trends, warning that it would "pour fuel on the fire." He called for "climate action equal to the crisis," advocating for an end to fossil fuel dependence, a rapid transition to renewable energy, and the protection of vulnerable populations, alongside the implementation of early warning systems.

The WMO's warning comes as several parts of western Europe have already experienced record-breaking temperatures in an early summer heatwave, and parts of Asia, including India and China, are facing typically high temperatures. Sea-surface temperatures in the reference monitoring area of the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific had been approaching El Nino thresholds in late April to mid-May.

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El Nino will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even further, and cross borders with devastating speed.