El Niño has begun and a cold front enters Uruguay: meteorologists explain weather instability

The phenomenon of El Niño has officially commenced and has the potential to develop into one of the most intense episodes in modern history during the latter half of 2026, according to an analysis by the Brazilian meteorological agency Metsul. However, Uruguayan meteorologist José Serra clarified that the phenomenon is only just beginning to develop and is not the cause of the current weather instability in Uruguay.

Serra described the upcoming week in Uruguay as unstable, characterized by atmospheric variability, persistent fog, and high humidity. He noted that a slow-moving cold front will bring scarce precipitation on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be autumnal, remaining relatively high for the season.

Meteorologist Guillermo Ramis added that Monday would see light rain, with some showers possible in the early morning on Tuesday. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to range between 12°C and 15°C, with potential rain in the late afternoon. Tuesday's temperatures will be between 10°C and 14°C, with abundant cloud cover and some showers. The forecast for Wednesday shows a minimum of 8°C and a maximum of 15°C, Thursday between 11°C and 14°C, and Friday between 9°C and 15°C.

Looking towards the weekend, Saturday is expected to have abundant cloudiness with temperatures between 9°C and 14°C. On Sunday, a cold front will pass, bringing some precipitation, with temperatures ranging from 9°C to 13°C. The Uruguayan Institute of Meteorology (Inumet) reported fluctuating temperatures between 8°C and 20°C across the country on Monday. In Montevideo, the morning will be cloudy to overcast with fog, precipitation, and gusts of wind up to 40 km/h. The afternoon and evening will remain cloudy to overcast with precipitation and winds from the southeast and east at 10 to 40 km/h, with a minimum temperature of 13°C and a maximum of 15°C.