El Niño is here: South Africa must pay for prevention now

South Africa has been warned: El Niño has established itself in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen during the final months of 2026. The South African Weather Service forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across much of the country during the coming summer.

The wider regional outlook is also troubling. The Southern African Development Community expects below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Africa, including most of South Africa, during the early part of the 2026/27 rainy season. Several countries could remain drier into early 2027.

That does not mean every province will experience drought. Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities, not certainties, and local conditions can vary. The strong 1997/98 El Niño, for example, coincided with slightly above-normal rainfall in parts of South Africa. Other oceanic and atmospheric systems will also shape the season. But uncertainty over exactly where rain will fall does not remove the need to prepare.

A hot, dry season can begin with heat stress, reduced water supplies and struggling farms. It can then push up food prices, worsen diets, encourage unsafe water storage and interrupt livelihoods. The consequences can include malnutrition, diarrhoeal disease, displacement and heavier pressure on health services already struggling with their own water and supply systems.

The article’s central warning is that El Niño exposes weak systems rather than creating those weaknesses. It does not decide whether municipalities repair leaking water networks, clinics maintain backup supplies, schools protect feeding programmes or employers shield outdoor workers during heatwaves. Extreme heat can cause dehydration, exhaustion and heatstroke, while worsening cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney disease. Older people, infants, pregnant women, outdoor workers and people taking certain medicines face particular risks. People living in poorly ventilated informal housing may have little protection. The forecast is probabilistic, but the vulnerabilities are already present.