El Niño Poised to Be Strongest Ever Recorded, NOAA Warns

The powerful El Niño weather phenomenon is strengthening and has a 69% probability of becoming the strongest ever recorded, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday. The agency's Climate Prediction Center has raised the likelihood that the upcoming El Niño, spanning October to December, will be a "historic event exceeding the strength" of previous occurrences since records began in 1950.

NOAA stated that El Niño is currently strengthening, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, and reaching up to 10 degrees Celsius below the surface. The formation of El Niño is declared when equatorial Pacific temperatures are 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for several consecutive months. The current event, which emerged in June, has already surpassed the threshold for a strong El Niño.

With an event of this magnitude, the probability of experiencing El Niño-consistent impacts increases, though they are not guaranteed. NOAA forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event occurring during the Northern Hemisphere's autumn and winter of 2026-27. El Niño typically brings drier conditions and warmer winters to the western United States, but can also lead to increased rainfall and potential flooding in the southern U.S.

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With an event of this magnitude, the probability of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are greater, but not guaranteed.

Furthermore, El Niño's influence is altering tropical cyclone patterns. The phenomenon is associated with a higher possibility of tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean but a reduced likelihood of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Reflecting this, NOAA recently lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast to a maximum of 13 storms, below the historical average, while predicting up to 22 cyclones in the eastern Pacific, exceeding the average.

In related climate news, NOAA also reported that July 2026 was the hottest month on record in the United States, with an average temperature nearly 25 degrees Celsius, 1.8 degrees above the 20th-century average.

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El Niño is strengthening, with a probability greater than 90% of a very strong event during the fall and winter of 2026-27 in the Northern Hemisphere.