El Nino set to make 2026 the hottest year on record

The intensifying El Nino phenomenon is poised to make 2026 the hottest year ever recorded, potentially exceeding the temperatures seen in 2024. New data from Berkeley Earth suggests a significant probability, estimated at 69%, that 2026 will break existing global temperature records. An additional 30% chance exists for 2026 to rank as the second-hottest year on record, indicating a high likelihood of extreme heat globally.

While the first six months of 2026 are projected to be the third-warmest on record, the strengthening El Nino is expected to drive up average annual temperatures. This projection is bolstered by recent data, including July being recorded as the second-hottest July globally. The rapid development of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean following this warm July reinforces the expectation that it could become one of the most powerful El Nino events on record.

El Nino is known to increase global average temperatures by raising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Stronger El Nino events typically have a more pronounced warming effect on the world's climate. Experts are cautioning that the situation could become even more severe in 2027.

According to Berkeley Earth, the warming influence of El Nino often extends beyond its peak in the Pacific. This delayed effect is expected to continue contributing to global temperature increases, further raising the possibility of new temperature records being set in 2027.