El Niño Strengthens, BMKG Reports Drier Conditions Becoming Dominant Across Indonesia

Indonesia is bracing for drier conditions as the national meteorological agency, BMKG, forecasts a significant reduction in rainfall across most of the archipelago. This trend is attributed to the widespread dry season and a strengthening El Niño phenomenon observed in the Pacific Ocean. The BMKG reported that the latest Nino 3.4 index has risen to +1.24, classifying the event as a moderate El Niño. Currently, an estimated 72.19% of Indonesian territory is experiencing low rainfall, with dry conditions becoming increasingly dominant. These dry spells are particularly pronounced in southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. The agency attributes the reduced rainfall potential to the +1.24 Nino 3.4 index and a negative Indian Ocean Oscillation index of -23.3. Consequently, 48.9% of Indonesia, or 342 defined weather zones (ZOM), have already entered the dry season. BMKG's monitoring also reveals that 329 observation points, about 7%, are experiencing very long dry spells, lasting 31 to 60 days. High maximum temperatures, exceeding 35 degrees Celsius, were recorded between July 1-5 in several areas, including North Sumatra, Lampung, West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Central Java, Banten, and Central Sulawesi. Researchers from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) corroborate these findings, noting the Pacific Ocean's warming trend since April and its strengthening El Niño conditions. Erma Yulihastin, a climate researcher at BRIN, confirmed the sea surface temperature anomaly reached 1.25 degrees Celsius by July 5, escalating from 1.1 degrees Celsius in late June. She indicated that the current El Niño has transitioned from a weak to a moderate phase, with climate models suggesting a potential to intensify further. Yulihastin also highlighted similarities between the 2026 El Niño's subsurface heat patterns and those of 1997, and its spatial structure to 2015, suggesting its impacts are widening across Indonesia as the western Pacific near Papua begins to cool.