El Niño Super Event Unlikely in 2026, but Indonesia Braces for Longer Dry Season

Indonesia's National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) has assessed the likelihood of an El Niño event in 2026, concluding that it is unlikely to cause extreme drought conditions across the archipelago. Despite this, the agency forecasts that the current year's dry season will be prolonged and experience rainfall below climatological averages.

Albertus Sulaiman, Head of BRIN's Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, stated that the 2026 El Niño is not expected to reach extreme levels. He based this assessment on analyses from various global climate models, which indicate a current global climate leaning towards a moderate El Niño, with approximately a 27 percent probability. This contrasts with the "super strong" or "Godzilla El Nino" events observed in 1997 and 2015.

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El Nino 2026 is expected not to reach extreme levels, but the dry season is predicted to last longer with rainfall below the climatological average.

Several factors contribute to this prediction. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a phenomenon influencing atmospheric circulation, is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to remain so until April 2027. Furthermore, Indonesia and the Pacific region recently experienced a strong El Niño in 2023–2024. Sulaiman explained that the ocean likely lacks sufficient energy to form another extreme El Niño event in such close succession.

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So physically the oceans do not have enough energy to form a super extreme El Nino again in such a short time.

However, BRIN's research has detected signals indicating an increased risk of an extreme El Niño event occurring between late 2027 and mid-2028. Utilizing stochastic analysis with the Fokker-Planck equation, BRIN projects a nearly 40 percent chance of a "Godzilla El Niño" during this period. Sulaiman described this finding as an early warning for the government to begin developing medium-term mitigation strategies.

Regarding the current dry season, BRIN predicts its peak in August. Several areas in West Java, including Bekasi, Cirebon, Kuningan, and Bandung City, are particularly vulnerable to severe dryness. Overall, there is an 81 percent chance of a longer-than-average dry season. To address the impacts, BRIN has developed mitigation technologies, such as the real-time peatland monitoring system Ina-Carbon, which tracks groundwater levels, soil moisture, rainfall, and air quality to detect dry conditions.

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This finding serves as an early warning for the government to start preparing medium-term mitigation strategies.