Estonia: Russian War Losses Rise, July Territorial Gains in Ukraine Slow Significantly

Russian forces captured less than 40 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July, a stark contrast to the same month last year, according to a briefing by the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center. This significant slowdown in territorial gains is accompanied by a nearly 30% increase in Russian military casualties compared to July of the previous year. The center estimates that Russian forces lost an average of 1,300 military personnel daily during July.

The intelligence report indicates that Russia is actively preparing for expanded conscription. Discussions about potential mobilization have been ongoing, and the necessary legal and organizational preparations are reportedly in progress. Documents related to mobilization readiness and execution, as well as a mobilization registration system, have been issued by Russian authorities. Businesses and institutions have also begun recruiting personnel specifically for mobilization tasks.

Estonian intelligence noted that Russia launched fewer drones and missiles in July compared to the previous year, but the use of missiles increased significantly. The report concludes that Russian advances have slowed considerably, and the cost of capturing territory has become extremely high, with Russia still unable to fully occupy the Donbas region. The intelligence center also suggested that Russia might be considering mobilization after its parliamentary elections on September 20th, which could alter the balance of forces on the front lines and increase pressure on Ukrainian forces in the autumn.