Europe must counter Russia's hybrid war, says Niinistö – what could it mean?

Finnish President Sauli Niinistö has called for Europe to develop its own hybrid warfare capabilities to counter Russia's actions. In an interview with Der Spiegel, Niinistö suggested that Europe should be able to inflict damage on Russia through hybrid means, though he did not specify what these actions might entail.

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Europe should also ensure that it can inflict damage on Russia by means of hybrid warfare.

Russia's hybrid warfare tactics have historically included sabotage, weaponized migration, and social media manipulation, all aimed at altering European behavior and forcing compromises on values and laws. Teija Tiilikainen, director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, emphasized that any European response must avoid illegal actions that Russia might exploit to discredit Western values.

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The question is complex in the sense that Russia, with its own hybrid warfare methods, specifically seeks to change the behavior of European states and make compromises on their own values and legislation.

Tiilikainen noted that Russia's hybrid actions have already led to compromises, citing Finland's tightened border controls, which some human rights experts deem contrary to international commitments. She explained that Russia aims to provoke responses that lead to increased regulation and restrictions in European states.

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One should not engage in such illegalities that Russia is trying to push us into. It is good to keep in mind when formulating countermeasures that one does not shoot oneself in the foot.

Hybrid warfare, as defined by Tiilikainen, involves non-military actions to weaken an adversary by creating uncertainty and division. A potential European hybrid strategy could involve stronger communication of human rights and Western values to Russian civil society, though this is complicated by restrictive laws in Russia. Tiilikainen agrees with Niinistö that Europe needs to be more proactive, moving beyond just building resilience to initiating its own strategies.

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Russia aims to steer things in a direction where we start to regulate, delimit, and restrict due to security interests.