Europe's population to peak at 450.6 million before sustained decline begins in 2029

The European Union is on the cusp of reaching its demographic peak, with the population expected to reach 450.6 million before a steady decline begins in 2029. A report from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) forecasts that the EU's population will slightly increase to approximately 453.3 million by 2029, then commence a slow but lasting decrease. By 2050, the EU is projected to have 445 million inhabitants, falling to 398.8 million by 2100, a level not seen since the late 1970s.

Concurrently, Europeans are living longer and healthier lives than ever before. Life expectancy has climbed to 81.5 years, attributed to medical advancements and improved living conditions. Projections suggest that by 2050, nearly one in three EU residents will be 65 or older, a significant rise from the current one in five. By 2100, life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 for men. A child born in the EU in 2023 can expect to live up to 75.3 years free from serious illness.

This demographic transformation presents substantial challenges for the EU, including potential labor shortages, increased pressure on public finances, and strain on healthcare, education, and social cohesion systems. However, it also opens avenues for new markets within the 'silver economy,' fostering innovation in health and technology sectors. European Commissioner Dubravka Šuica emphasized the need for proactive measures, stating, "We are living longer and healthier than ever – one of our greatest achievements. But demographic change is transforming our societies, our economies, and our labor markets, and we must act now to make this transformation an opportunity."

To mitigate the effects of a shrinking workforce, the EU must focus on improving productivity and reducing unemployment. Currently, about 20% of working-age individuals are not in the labor market, with a 10-percentage-point employment gap between men and women, and 8 million young people neither employed nor in education or training. While immigration is noted as playing an increasing role in offsetting some of these demographic trends, it is not expected to significantly alter the overall population trajectory.

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We are living longer and healthier than ever – one of our greatest achievements. But demographic change is transforming our societies, our economies, and our labor markets, and we must act now to make this transformation an opportunity.