Europeans no longer trust the U.S.

European confidence in the United States as a security guarantor has plummeted to historic lows, according to a new survey. The poll, which included residents from 15 countries, reveals that only one in ten Europeans now considers the U.S. an ally, while a significant majority express doubt about whether Americans would provide assistance if attacked.

The findings, published by the European Council on Foreign Relations ahead of major G7 and NATO summits, highlight a profound erosion of trust in the U.S. security commitment. While many Europeans anticipate an improvement in relations with Washington after Donald Trump's potential second term, they are simultaneously preparing for U.S. unreliability by bolstering European defense capabilities.

Analysts point to a range of factors contributing to this shift, including perceived U.S. aggression in the Middle East, threats directed at Greenland, past promises to withdraw troops from European bases, and skepticism regarding NATO's future. This has prompted a more pragmatic approach among Europeans toward their own security.

"A clear consensus is emerging across the continent to reduce reliance on Washington," stated Jana Kobzova, a senior fellow responsible for policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations and one of the survey's authors. "Europeans are increasingly open to higher defense spending and, more importantly, demonstrate a striking conviction that neighboring countries will come to their aid in a crisis."

The survey, based on previous polls conducted in May across Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, found that an average of only 11% of respondents now view the U.S. as an ally. This figure has declined from 16% six months prior and 22% in November 2024. Currently, the prevailing sentiment is that America is an unavoidable partner, though 13% of respondents consider America a rival, and 12% see it as a direct adversary. In most countries, the majority of respondents are uncertain about U.S. assistance in the event of an attack, with a notable exception being Bulgaria.