Expert: Impossible to Influence Iran's Grip on Strait of Hormuz

Despite reports of the US developing plans to attack Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, a leading military expert has cast serious doubt on the effectiveness of such actions. Hans Liwång, a professor of defense systems, told Dagens Nyheter that Iran's capacity to disrupt vital shipping lanes is incredibly difficult to neutralize through military means. He emphasizes that Iran does not require significant resources to achieve this; a few drones, missiles, or mines could suffice. This assessment highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the region, where Iran's strategic leverage, even with limited means, poses a persistent challenge. Western media often focuses on the military posturing and potential escalations, but from a Swedish perspective, Liwång's analysis underscores the inherent limitations of military solutions in asymmetric conflicts and the potential for unintended consequences, particularly when operating on incomplete intelligence. The article points out that US attacks might target known military bases, but Iran's disruptive capabilities could be dispersed and harder to pinpoint, making any offensive action fraught with risk.

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With military means, it is basically impossible to completely get rid of Iran's ability to disrupt shipping traffic.