Expert on Iran's Hormuz deal: 'No reason to believe problem is solved'

Rouzbeh Parsi, an Iran expert and historian at Lund University, expressed skepticism regarding Iran's recent announcement of an agreement with Oman to establish a safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. "Until we see an actual agreement, there is no reason to believe the problem is solved," Parsi stated, highlighting that the details and actual implementation remain uncertain.

According to Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran and Oman have agreed on the practical framework for a secure passage. Sources suggest that the White House and several Gulf nations were actively involved in the negotiations, though Iran has not commented on this. The technical nature of the accord reportedly defines specific coordinates for safe entry and exit, granting Tehran formal oversight of ships entering the Persian Gulf. This would represent a significant concession to Iran.

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Until we see an actual agreement, there is no reason to believe the problem is solved.

If the deal is finalized, it could also trigger a new 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Parsi noted that the agreement aims to practically implement aspects of a memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June, which neither party has fully adhered to. He suggested that President Trump's primary objective might be reopening the strait to exit the conflict, but he is unlikely to acknowledge it as a result of a formal agreement with Iran, preferring to claim personal credit.

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The problem for Trump is that with the agreement between them and Oman, Iran gains a completely new, formalized role in the strait – and that is diametrically opposed to everything he intended with this war.

Parsi believes Iran would resist allowing Trump to claim victory, preferring a prolonged conflict until a concrete, signed agreement is reached. The vagueness of the initial US-Iran understanding has been a sticking point, with experts warning of a substantial loss of prestige for the US. "The problem for Trump is that with the agreement between them and Oman, Iran gains a completely new, formalized role in the strait – and that is diametrically opposed to everything he intended with this war," Parsi explained.

Behind the scenes, Qatar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have reportedly been involved in mediation efforts. A Haaretz analysis cited a Western diplomat familiar with the diplomatic activities around the Strait of Hormuz, who concluded that there is currently no coherent process, only "disorder" with multiple parties talking to each other.

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They prefer the war to continue until the parties sit down and sign something real.