Expert: U.S. Patriot missile shortage could impact Ukraine

Ukraine's vulnerability to Russian air attacks may be increasing due to a potential shortage of U.S.-made Patriot missiles. This situation has emerged following contradictory statements from former President Donald Trump regarding Ukraine's ability to produce the advanced air defense system.

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Make the missiles yourselves. We haven't talked to the company about it yet, but it will be sorted out.

Initially, at a NATO meeting in Ankara in early July, Trump signaled approval for Ukraine to license the manufacturing of Patriot missiles. He stated, "Make the missiles yourselves. We haven't talked to the company about it yet, but it will be sorted out." This announcement was met with relief by Ukraine, which had long sought such technology.

However, Trump later reversed his position. During a cabinet meeting at Camp David, he stated, "We haven't agreed on it, we've talked about it, but it's hard to give away such advanced technology and I don't think it will ever happen." The reasons behind this shift remain unclear to the public.

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We haven't agreed on it, we've talked about it, but it's hard to give away such advanced technology and I don't think it will ever happen.

Martin Lundmark, a lecturer in defense systems at the Swedish Defence University, expressed more surprise at Trump's initial approval than his subsequent reversal. Lundmark noted the U.S.'s historical reluctance to share such technology, fearing it could fall into the hands of adversaries. He suggested that the U.S. might be prioritizing its own needs, especially if it requires American resources to support Ukrainian production.

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I am more surprised that he approved it from the beginning than that he swung back. The U.S. has always been very restrictive with its own technology and does not want it spread to other countries. There is a risk that someone, whom the U.S. sees as an enemy, would come to understand and possess the technology.

Adding to the concerns, a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published on June 30 indicated that U.S. Patriot missile stockpiles have decreased by 65 percent during the Iran conflict, with potentially only 759 advanced missiles remaining. While the Trump administration has denied such shortages, a new agreement with manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman for Patriot missile production could suggest otherwise.

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If Ukraine is to produce them, it will require American resources as support. One can imagine that the U.S. needs these itself at the moment.