Experts: Kazakhstan’s Oil Export Strategy Faces Growing Need for Diversification

Kazakhstan's oil export strategy faces growing pressure to diversify as disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) force a reduction in the country's production targets. The nation has lowered its 2026 oil production goal from 98 million tonnes to 96 million tonnes following repeated attacks on CPC facilities.

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We planned to produce 98 million tonnes, but the adjusted plan is now 96 million tonnes. The losses in production from the attacks on CPC will amount to 3.5 million tonnes.

Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated that these attacks, occurring in January and July, resulted in nearly 3.5 million tonnes of lost oil production. To mitigate further losses, Kazakhstan and oil producers have adjusted maintenance schedules. Tengizchevroil shareholders have postponed major maintenance until next year, while North Caspian Operating Company has moved its work to 2027. Maintenance at the Karachaganak field is slated for mid-September, expected to reduce production by approximately 400,000-450,000 tonnes.

These developments underscore a critical challenge for Kazakhstan: its economic security is heavily tied to reliable access to international markets. The CPC, which connects major Kazakh oil fields to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, remains the principal export route. Frequent disruptions raise concerns about the country's ability to redirect crude oil swiftly if this main artery becomes unavailable or operates below capacity.

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Kazakhstan produces approximately five times more oil than it consumes domestically. This makes Kazakhstan a distinctly oil-exporting country.

Economist Abzal Narymbetov stressed the importance of diversification, noting that Kazakhstan produces about five times more oil than it consumes domestically. "The main question for Kazakhstan is not only how much oil to produce, but how to maintain export volumes, develop supply routes and increase added value within the country," Narymbetov wrote. The strategy must focus not just on production capacity but also on securing and diversifying export routes to ensure stable economic performance.

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The main question for Kazakhstan is not only how much oil to produce, but how to maintain export volumes, develop supply routes and increase added value within the country.