Experts: Russian Spring-Summer Offensive Campaign Has Failed

Military analysts suggest that Ukrainian forces may have foreseen Russia's spring-summer offensive campaign, potentially knowing about it as early as autumn 2025. The cyclical nature of these Russian offensives, typically occurring in summer and autumn, meant the main challenge for Ukraine was identifying specific logistical routes, operational areas, and the primary directions of the aggressor's efforts. Ukraine appears to have succeeded in this, likely beginning its counter-planning from late 2025 to early 2026, with the current situation seen as the "ripe fruits" of that strategy. Russian attacks systematically increased from April, with July seeing a 36% rise in attacks along the contact line compared to April. Russia intensified strikes to break Ukrainian defenses, command and control capabilities, and logistics, significantly increasing the use of guided aerial bombs capable of reaching up to 150 km. By July, the use of these bombs was 19% higher than in April, and FPV drone strikes increased by 13%. While artillery use remained similar, this may not reflect Russian preference, as their losses in artillery systems have grown substantially. Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy casualties on Russia in July, with 42,860 personnel killed or wounded, a 23% increase compared to April. Ukrainian forces also destroyed 33% more of Russia's armored vehicles, repelling intense mechanized assaults. Losses of Russian indirect fire systems surpassed 1,000 in January and reached unprecedented levels between April and July, averaging 2,054 systems per month. In July alone, Ukraine destroyed or damaged 7% more Russian artillery systems than in April, suggesting a depletion of available artillery. Losses of unarmored Russian equipment also surged, exceeding 4,000 in early 2024 and reaching new highs between April and July, with an average of 10,479.75 units destroyed monthly. July saw a 54% increase in destroyed unarmored targets compared to April, largely comprising logistical equipment used in assaults. Crucially, Ukraine also destroyed or damaged 72% more Russian aircraft in July.