Fact Check: Does Indonesia Really Control Global Rice Prices?

A viral video circulating across social media platforms claims Indonesia now controls global rice prices, alleging that its decision to halt rice imports from 2025 has angered exporters like Vietnam and Thailand, leading to a global price decline.

However, a fact-check by Tempo, referencing credible data and economic experts, refutes this assertion. The analysis indicates that Indonesia's policy shift regarding rice imports has not significantly impacted global market prices. According to Reuters, global rice prices actually dropped after India resumed grain exports in April 2025, following a period of restrictions since 2022. This increase in global supply, coupled with falling prices in Thailand and Vietnam, appears to be the primary driver of the price decrease.

Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that while Indonesia is the fourth-largest rice producer globally, its output is considerably less than that of India and China. The international rice trade has been dominated by India, Thailand, and Vietnam since 2011. Although Indonesia was the world's largest rice importer in 2023, this position was temporary. Experts like Adhitya Wardhono, a lecturer at the University of Jember, attribute the price decline to a rising global supply and India's export resumption, rather than Indonesia's domestic policies. The price surge in 2023–2024 was mainly influenced by El Niño concerns and India's export restrictions.

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This means the main factors are broader, namely rising global supply, India reopening exports, or weakening import demand from several countries.