Finland's statistics agency head suggests dropping GDP forecasts amid budget cuts

Statistics Finland's Director General, Markus Sovala, has proposed considering the discontinuation of preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts. This suggestion arises as the agency faces government-mandated budget cuts that will force a reduction in its statistical output. Sovala voiced his thoughts on social media in response to a report by the Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, a social democratic think tank, which examined the methods and historical accuracy of research institutes' growth forecasts.

The foundation's report indicated that forecasts had generally been inaccurate and consistently biased. A significant factor contributing to this inaccuracy was the strong reliance on Statistics Finland's preliminary GDP data. These preliminary figures had deviated substantially from the actual economic trajectory, averaging a 0.7 percentage point difference between 2011 and 2025. Sovala, who previously managed forecasts at the Ministry of Finance from 2013 to 2016, stated that those involved in forecasting are well aware of the inherent uncertainties.

While Sovala conceded that life might be better if based on fewer predictions, he highlighted the necessity of making economic budget decisions years in advance of final data availability. "A common calculation basis for decisions is needed – even a poor forecast is better than none," he wrote. Decisions regarding the reduction of statistical production at Statistics Finland are expected in the coming months following a consultation period. Sovala noted that while abandoning preliminary GDP forecasts could be a sensible cost-saving measure, EU regulations impose limitations on such actions.