Four Critical Obstacles Stand in the Way of the US-Iran Agreement

Following a remotely signed memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran last week, attention has shifted to the technical and political negotiations scheduled over the next 60 days. While both sides express cautious optimism about reaching a final agreement, experts highlight the persistence of several critical disputes that could derail the process.

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The first and most sensitive obstacles to the agreement is the issue of Lebanon.

The first and most sensitive obstacle, according to experts, is the issue of Lebanon. Iran has recently expanded its demands, signaling that a final agreement must include Israel's complete withdrawal from Lebanon. The inclusion of phrases in the memorandum respecting Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity has emboldened Tehran to raise this issue more forcefully in negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has stated he is not bound by the agreement between Washington and Tehran and does not plan to end the de facto occupation in southern Lebanon under the guise of a 'security zone.' Despite a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ongoing Israeli military operations against targets in southern Lebanon maintain regional fragility.

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The memorandum text includes expressions of respect for Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which has led Tehran to raise this issue more strongly in negotiations.

The most complex aspect of the negotiations revolves around Iran's nuclear program. Both parties have deferred fundamental issues, such as the future of uranium enrichment activities and the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, to subsequent technical discussions. Key questions remain unanswered: For how long will Iran halt enrichment activities? Will the approximately 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium be removed from the country, or will the enrichment level be reduced? How will inspection and verification processes be conducted at nuclear facilities damaged by Israeli attacks? Experts believe the success of a final agreement hinges significantly on resolving these technical details.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he is not bound by the agreement reached between Washington and Tehran and does not plan to end the de facto occupation in southern Lebanon under the name of a 'security zone.'

Another critical point is the lifting of sanctions, specifically the timeline and conditions under which they will be removed. The parties have yet to agree on a clear framework detailing which sanctions will be lifted in response to each nuclear step Iran takes. Complicating matters further is US domestic politics. President Donald Trump has signaled that a final agreement might be presented to Congress. As the lifting of major US economic sanctions could require congressional approval, experts assess that the legislative process could become one of the biggest political hurdles to the agreement. Jeremy Paner, a former US Treasury Department sanctions investigator now a partner at Hughes Hubbard & Reed, noted in an assessment to Reuters that a large part of Iran's oil sector is under the influence of the Revolutionary Guards, suggesting that legal challenges could arise if sanctions are lifted.

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The success of the final agreement largely depends on the resolution of these technical details.